America vs. Iran, Stadium: Bahrain

For those addicted to black gold, when at battle, there is no limit to moral degradation. There comes a time when you are close to resource depletion (we speak of oil here) that you feel the compulsion to call up your drug dealer for an immediate fix without considering the consequences of your actions. The drug dealer in this particular case are the Kingdoms of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, both of which are compliant and mutual friends with America and the nation’s needs for its means of production and sustainability.  We are all aware of the extent to which the Americans are dependent on oil in order to function and carry on with their daily lives. We also know that with oil being priced in petrodollars, the financial markets are directly and laterally manipulated by the numerical changes in oil, thus creating detrimental effects if not absolute havoc in the economies that trade with the dollar. Put plain and simple, without oil, Big America comes to an easy halt. However, what many people fail to link is the hypocrisy of America’s foreign policy that results from this desperate need for oil. See, although America may act like a beacon for human rights, justice, and  liberty, it will still be more than willing to forfeit those values and ideals in substitution for personal and monetary gain. This act of hypocrisy is particularly highlighted in the current events happening now in Bahrain.

Now, on a small scale, the situation in Bahrain may appear like a Shia fight for empowerment against a minuscule Sunni rule. In other words, some may call the conflict a civil war since there are two different ideologies in discord with one another. But for those who are able to read politics and translate its meaning into a bigger picture, they would recognize that this is really a proxy war for America in contest with Iran, with Saudi Arabia and King Khalifa as America’s players and the majority Shia Bahrainis as Iran’s. Recent occurrences will later indicate that the move taken by the Saudis, as directed from the US, to send Saudi troops into Bahrain in order to help put an end to the Shia uprisings, will only help to expedite King Khalifa’s deafeat.  King Khalifa’s days are really numbered from this day on as it is America’s mistake for imprudently advising King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to take such course. America’s motive is quite lucid. They have their stake in Bahrain because they have their 5th fleet docked there. They also have an interest to keep King Khalifa in power because they’d rather do business with a Sunni King who happens to also need America during a sensitive time where war between Sunni and Shia could burst and fragment throughout the Middle East.  The King of Bahrain must have a short memory for if he had only looked into the country’s past he’d remember that the majority of  Bahrainis have always had more loyalty and allegiance to Iran than they did for their Gulf Arab Sunni counterparts. Going back to just 1981, one would recall that the Bahraini Shia fundamentalists had attempted a coup for the liberation of Bahrain and if successful would have propped up a Shia cleric .

What we may see in the near future is King Khalifa taking refuge with his buddy King Abdullah in Saudi Arabia if Saudi Arabia is not subjected to the same dilemma beforehand. A couple days ago King Abdullah  had publicly announced that he would enact a $67 billion package that included raises and loans for Saudis. It does not take much for even the commoner to see straight through this tactic as a bribe for political loyalty to the Saud Monarch. King Abdullah’s payout wreaks of his fear from having the Arab Revolutions roll right into his backyard. But only time will reveal the ineffectiveness of this bribe for it is not a long term solution. In London, there have already been protests today outside the Saudi Embassy in Mayfair demonstrating indignation for Saudi troops in Bahrain.  Again, the double standard is exemplified in Libya, when Syrian and Algerian troops are caught helping Qaddafi with stealth operations. When this discovery was made by the West, the West decried foul.  There is no difference between King Khalifa and Qaddafi. Each is equally corrupt to its own people. If you defend one you ought to defend the other. Those protesters in London are only a handful of people that can call out a bluff when they see one. Saudi Arabia needs to brace itself for its own intense swarm of protests because bribery is just another form of political confinement wrapped up with a silk bow.

When the bank forecloses on your house, you call up your best friends and ask them to allow you to crash on their couch until you can get situated again. This is what has happened with Bin Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt. When the two of the them were given the boot they called up their best friend King Abdullah. King Abdullah gladly gave them refuge when nearly no one else would or could. Rationality says that King Khalifah will soon fall in the same footsteps but more importantly, these moves are also indicative of the alliance of Sunni powers that used to be but are now dwindling. Saudi Arabia’s rug is slipping from underneath. It is hard being Saudi Arabia today, to see its regional allies or muscles sized down and its regional influence diminished. Presently, Saudi Arabia is trying to keep its defense walls (i.e. Yemen and Bahrain) as far as possible from its own borders. We should expect King Abdullah to continue trying  to control the masses with his bribes but without success. The failure of this attempt will arise from the rites of political passage to power and autonomy that lies in the heart of every human. It is only if King Abdullah grants more political power and autonomy to his people that he will be able to sleep better at night. Damage has been done and there is no turning back at this point.

on the Libyan uprising…

Today, the BBC’s journalist Mark Mardell wrote an article stating: “For the first time, I think the “no fly zone” over Libya might actually happen. If it does, it will mean the traditional Western interventionism will have won over President Barack Obama’s fear of dabbling in the Middle East.”

Well Mark, and for the rest of you that agree with him, let me explain why you are wrong to think in these terms. To have a Libyan ‘no fly zone’ imposed would only put on display American hypocrisy in its foreign policies. For America to impose a Libyan ‘no fly zone’  in support of the national rebels would imply that a ‘no fly zone’ should also be imposed in Bahrain.  America cannot do both since it is  in the Obama administration’s interest to keep at bay their 5th fleet base in Bahrain which is headed by an American puppet also known as King Hamid bin Isa Al Khalifa. Secondly, although various other Arab countries are urging for the US to vote yes in the UN on the ‘no fly zone,’ America also has to consider its ties with Israel. In order to help Israel, the US ought to vote yes on the ‘no fly zone.’ With Qaddafi in power, Israel can be put more at ease when juxtaposed with the possible relatively new and extreme government installed by the Libyan revolutionaries, most of whom carry greater anti-semitic sentiments with them.  Thus, we can see the difficulties for America ‘s propensity to continue supporting dictators in the Middle East such as Mubarak and Bin Ali of Tunisia,  however further reasons for this will be explicated in my next entry…

Going back to Libya, the ground fight for control between the rebels and Qaddafi’s forces for Libya’s major cities and areas, with absent Western interventionism will only ensue in Qaddafi’s  imminent defeat and thus pave the way for a majority rule of extreme jihadist governance. Syria and Algeria, Qaddafi’s less notorious and publicized allies, may also be secretly helping and gunning for Qaddafi’s success,  considering it is also in their favor to squash the Libyan mass rebellion. If Qaddafi is capable of quelling the rebellion, then Assad of Syria and Boutefilka of Algeria will follow in suit with the same measures.  Qaddafi’s success is meant to instill  enough fear in the hearts of those dissident Syrians and Algerians from  attempting similar uprisings. For Syria, Algeria, and Yemen, Libya is the front line for the possible end of the Arab revolutions. But this is all unlikely since it is inevitable that Qaddafi will fail.

Qaddafi is not just fighting a civil war. He is fighting a strong resistance equipped with a religion and belief system that rewards you for being a martyr. Hundreds of thousands of average Libyans all ready to die for a reformed country,  up against a paid army that rely heavily on their guns and tanks to face a challenge that they can’t normally fight sans weaponry. Qaddafi’s forces may have their strength in the day with their jet fighters but when the sun sets and all is dark the rebels can fend for themselves and claim back what it rightfully theirs.In the last five decades, from Vietnam to Southern Lebanon to Afghanistan to Iraq to Chechnya, it has been proved that all resistance movements up against mighty powers eventually claim their victories in one way or another. The Libyan motto, “we don’t surrender, we either win or we die”  pretty much sums it all up. These people are unstoppable and death is the highest and only price they are willing to pay. Death is an honorary treasure to acquire.

On a grander note, one could even state that this situation will only create a new kind of Iraq. The lack of Western interventionism will motivate other extremist jihadist Arabs to join forces with the Libyans in support of their cause and to fill the vacuum placed by the West . Meanwhile, the West will sit on the sidelines and place their bets on the winners as business  is more important than blood. The US will prolong the UN vote for the no fly zone to see which side, either Qaddafi or the revolutionaries, will take stronghold of the oil sites. Once there is a clear determination as to who the winner will be, you can be assured that the US will be right behind that winner. So in the end Mark, this has nothing to do with Obama’s cowardice of meddling in the Middle East nor the pompous balls of Western interventionists. What it all comes down to is pragmatism.